November 14, 2003

How voting can be deceptive

On Wednesday night, I held a review session for my kids' exam (scheduled for next Tuesday). A bunch of people come, all of whom were some of my more motivated students (save for a couple of desperate souls who hadn't cracked open their books since day one). But, since we basically selected a random room in the student learning center, those who came late couldn't find the review session, and so in turn, never got to benefit from the review. So, on Thursday, I told them that I would be holding another review session. If I did, I asked, how many of them would be interested and how many would be willing to show up on Friday? Around 60% of the class (so around 30+) said that they would come if I scheduled it on Friday. So, 10:30am, Friday morning, comes around and how many people show? Four.

I thought that was really interesting. When they voted, everyone said that they would come. But when they were forced to weigh the actual marginal benefits of coming against the marginal costs of carving out that time to sit through what would basically be an hour and a half of me lecturing, a tiny portion actually came. This reminded me of people who vote against letting Wal-mart come to town - or whatever else they vote against. How many of those people, when it really comes down to it, would've behaved the way their votes showed? People say they hate Wal-mart, yet even people I know who abhor it still shop there. They shop there, even when they could go out of their way and frequent a few other stores in town, owned locally, with various degrees of local charm. Voting can lead to a kind of rational irrationality, in that since the votes are costless, they do not actually reflect real behavior.

The same goes for certain kinds of survey questions which ask people hypothetical questions like, "were this ______ to be built, would you use it?" "Yes," or "No," the truth is, such questions - and their answers - are completely unreliable. People may say they know, ahead of time, how they will behave, but how we behave at the margin is very specific to the situation. What are the marginal costs I incur by doing one action against the marginal benefits I get from taking that action? Oftentimes, people who hate Wal-mart still shop there because the prices are ultimately lower and the variety of goods and services offered is unbeatable.

Posted by scott at November 14, 2003 01:34 PM | TrackBack
Comments

See, that's why I was always the kid who argued vehemently against meeting or anything like that, and then showed up anyway.

Posted by: JosiahQ at November 14, 2003 01:55 PM

Andy, are you reading this?

He and I were IMing about this the other day. Scott, how does this realte to the people that love to hate Wal-Mart? Those who say that they want Wal-Mart out and the mom-and-pops back, but do not now choose to shop at those places when the time comes to make the decision at the margin? I think that is an interesting phenomenon--it's like people often don't realize the disconnect between idealistic political beliefs and their rational behavior. I think some people would like the government to take away Wal-Mart because it would force them to make a decision at the margin that they would like to make when they're not at the margin--a precommitment, so to speak, much like a web porn filter, or a self-imposed deadline, or tying oneself to the mast of your ship when you pass the isle of the sirens. A self-imposed limit to circumvent undesirable decisions being made in a situation that causes a change of preferences at the margin.

Posted by: Matthew at November 14, 2003 02:05 PM

As for the class vote, see "cheap talk" games in Gibbons. It's a very interesting class of games (and arises in political and social situations more than you'd think).

Voting against Walmart isn't necessarily the same thing. It could be that they want to be saved from their own choices: If Walmart is available they KNOW they will patronize it (because of price & convenience), and they know (or at least believe) that their actions will contribute to a coarsening of their town's social envirnment. So they vote against Walmart as a means of optimally constraining their own choices; as a commitment mechanism.

Posted by: Jim at November 14, 2003 02:54 PM

If that's the motivation, then definitely. Wal-mart then represents a kind of externality, in a way. It almost sounds like the voting process serving as a kind of committment mechanism. I know that my future actions (or believe) will lead to me to a strategy that is ultimately not one I want, so I eliminate that strategy ahead of time. I did this the other day, in a way, when I filled a ziploc bag up with water and froze my credit card in it in the freezer. That's a good point, and thanks for the Gibbons reference. I'll check it out when I get home.

Posted by: scott cunningham at November 14, 2003 03:58 PM

Matt - that sounds right. I heard that when Cortez came to Mexico, he burnt his ships at the shore. He wanted to remove an out ahead of time.

My niece is going through something similar. She's been placed at a new school, and hates it (4th grader). She misses her old school, and refuses to commit herself to her new school in hopes that she can return to her old school next year. My sister is going to sit her down and tell her definitively that she cannot go back, because at present, they've not been completely straight down the line about that, which allows Lucy (my cousin) to continue to hope for that future event. But if it were removed completely, it would force her to deal with the school in a way she refuses to right now.

So I imagine that it's kind of the same thing with Wal-Mart. We know we're not strong enough to resist the draw of Wal-mart when it comes to town, so let's simply eliminate it ahead of time, and therefore place ourselves at a certain margin where we ideally want to be.

Posted by: scott cunningham at November 14, 2003 04:03 PM

Mind you, the argument is only that this "could" be true, not that it "is" true.

I've wondered a bit about this and the legal suppression of "victimeless" crimes such pornography and etc.: the bulk of us would choose to penalize such actions not because of "paternalism" but simply to increase the cost to ourselves of a potential future action that we wish to avoid.

This is the entire point of contracts, after all. And voting is nothing more than a mechanism by which we provide consent to public policies.

Posted by: Jim at November 14, 2003 11:42 PM

Not living in a place without a wal-mart, I don't know what I would do if there wasn't one and they tried to come in. I think I would likely be opposed--I already try to avoid wal-mart as much as possible because I hate the hugeness of the place, but since the only other option is to pay more for my shampoo at equally souless chain drugstores, well... I go for cheap.

I have an aunt and uncle that live in a Wal-Martless area of Pennsylvania, and I know that they are adamantly against getting one. It's kind of a different world in that part of PA--they still have a huge weekly market where people go to buy their produce and meat and baked goods--it's an honest to goodness market like they had years ago before the advent of the supermarket, and unlike the flea-markets you find most places.

Posted by: kathryn at November 15, 2003 02:00 AM

A WalMart-less area of Pennsylvania...ah, I remember when Lancaster County was one of those. Apparently they had some kind of benefit concert against WalMart a while back near my home town, since they want put yet _another_ one in. The main reason I oppose it is that it's going to bring a lot of people into what used to be a fairly sheltered community, maybe some crime, but definitely screwed-up traffic patterns.

I don't like WalMart, by and large, but as said above, I'll go for cheap, depending what my other options are.

Posted by: Evan Donovan at November 15, 2003 02:52 PM

How to quantify to the margin:

Instant gratification. As we have a society which is engined by that, if you factor in whatever gives the quickest gratification to the unknowns of those people in the equation, you will figure out whether it will fly or not.

Until time is spent cultivating a desire for value, it is going to be whatever feeds the desire of moment that will rise to the surface and proliferate in the culture ( or the schedule...).

So, reaquaintance with the idea of value apart from the context of money and quick gratification will weight the balance of the margin differently.

The big question:

where does one find that rendevous with a deeper view of value?

Posted by: ilona at November 15, 2003 07:22 PM

ilona, rake your yard with an actual rake.

Work among the poor. Help the so-called "illegal immigrants" to recognize themselves as the worthy individuals they are. Listen to the prisoners and comfort them.

And never vote again.

Posted by: Charles Rozier at November 16, 2003 03:03 AM
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