While it's still too early to count the number killed by this weekend's earthquake in Iran, the number could very well be in tens of thousands. The magnitude of this quake was 6.6. The one in California a few days earlier had only been in the mid-5's (I want to say 5.5). How much of a difference does one point in the Richter scale make, you ask? I found this explanation quite helpful.
The Richter magnitude scale was developed in 1935 by Charles F. Richter of the California Institute of Technology as a mathematical device to compare the size of earthquakes. The magnitude of an earthquake is determined from the logarithm of the amplitude of waves recorded by seismographs. Adjustments are included in the magnitude formula to compensate for the variation in the distance between the various seismographs and the epicenter of the earthquakes. On the Richter Scale, magnitude is expressed in whole numbers and decimal fractions. For example, a magnitude of 5.3 might be computed for a moderate earthquake, and a strong earthquake might be rated as magnitude 6.3. Because of the logarithmic basis of the scale, each whole number increase in magnitude represents a tenfold increase in measured amplitude; as an estimate of energy, each whole number step in the magnitude scale corresponds to the release of about 31 times more energy than the amount associated with the preceding whole number value.Still, California's earthwake caused deaths ranging in the single digits, and Iran's in the tens of thousands. I suspect that this was not merely the result of the one point difference between the two quakes, but rather, is probably mostly due to the fact that housing, construction and infrastructure in Iran is so primitive and cannot withstand tremors of that magnitude. Most of the homes were made of mud or clay. It's no surprise, then, that the quake caused them all to come tumbling down. Seeing this, I was reminded again of the necessity of helping developing countries move into the 21st century. This is one reason, I think, that Robert Lucas, the Nobel Laureate, once noted that studying the growth rates of countries can give one something like tunnel vision. Once one realizes the welfare effects involved in growth rates - that is, the more one witnesses the effect that economic growth has on living standards and other variables highly correlated with living standards (ie, literacy rates, infant mortality rates, etc.) - the more difficult it becomes to pull oneself away from it. Had Iran been more developed - even marginally more developed in the sense of having more advanced physical capital in the form of buildings and homes - then undoubtedly, the damage done by this weekend's quake would not have been nearly this tragic. But as it stands, a gigantic population of people were killed. Posted by scott at December 28, 2003 04:05 PM | TrackBack